The numbers game: Transfer fees and a player’s worth

Rafa Benitez - Photo DjdannyP Wikimedia Commons

Rafa Benitez - Photo DjdannyP Wikimedia Commons

Some interesting leaps of logic have appeared in the transfer market in the last couple of days, and the following are two of our favourites concerning the top two sides in the Premiership last season.

Douglas Costa too pricey for United - The Telegraph

Manchester United priced out of deal for ‘Cristiano Ronaldo’s replacement’

Manchester United look set to be priced out of a move for Gremio midfielder Douglas Costa, according to the Brazilian’s agent.

But he added that with a reported $21million (£13.5m) get out clause in the player’s current contract, not to mention the fee Gremio president Duda Kreoff is holding out for, United look likely to be disappointed.

“There have been some informal conversations [but] I don’t believe they can reach those values,” Bottaga said. “Right now, an offer might come in at a maximum of £6.7million. But this would not be enough for [Gremio] president Duda Kroeff.

“At the end of the Brazilian championship, Douglas will be worth at least twice what he’s worth now.”

Erm, what? There’s no sense in here at all. Manchester United are looking at someone who has in several papers been touted as the ‘next Cristiano Ronaldo’. The current Cristiano Ronaldo, you may have heard, is going to be sold for £80m, which rather implies that the get-out clause in Douglas Costa’s contract of £13.5m is not prohibitively expensive. Yes, we can understand that United may feel that is too much, if indeed they’re looking at him seriously, but to continually use the term “priced out” when they very evidently and very publicly can afford the fee is very strange reporting. When the journalist says “United look likely to be disappointed”, there’s one way of fixing that, one entirely within United’s reach.

Glen Johnson was too expensive, but he’s worth it - Rafa Benitez says to the Sun

Rafa Benitez admits he paid over the odds to land Glen Johnson.

The Liverpool boss has agreed to hand Portsmouth £18.5million to sign the England right-back.

Manchester City’s late attempt to hijack the deal drove the price up and pocketed Johnson a £90,000-a-week, four-year deal.

But Benitez admitted: “Sometimes you have to spend a little bit more.

“You can’t compete in the top four of the Premier League unless you spend some money.

“We were looking for a player of quality and also somebody who is British because of the new Champions League rules. Johnson fits both categories.”

There are a few issues here, but the biggest one is this: a transfer fee is agreed between two clubs - the buying club offer it because they have the means to do so and they deem the player worthwhile, and the selling club accept the offer because they feel the money is acceptable recompense for their player. So Benitez didn’t pay over the odds, he spent the right amount. Since Chelsea apparently had made a similar bid, they did enough to prise him away from Portsmouth. And the late hijack attempt from Manchester City? Well, that’s news to us, and it clearly didn’t make a huge difference to the price. Other clubs deemed Johnson to be worth that much, therefore it’s what he’s worth. Whether anyone else thinks he’s worth it is somewhat irrelevant.

Incidentally, these quotes don’t actually seem to suggest Benitez is saying Johnson is too expensive, rather that he’s justifying the fee that might appear on the surface to be too expensive. Good work to the Sun for finding a fresh angle with it, though.

2 responses to “The numbers game: Transfer fees and a player’s worth”

  1. Big Transfer House draft

    [...] a numbers task, setting them budgets to try to work out who they can and can’t afford. Confusion reigns, as Rafa looks to blow the shopping budget on Glen, after being impressed by his poise when the [...]

  2. The Times get to grips with the Douglas Costa rumour

    [...] course, an asking price of £20m for the teenager would be fairly silly, of course, if the Telegraph’s claim of June 24 [...]

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