Juan Martin del Potro - Photo Keith Allison CCA
BBC tennis correspondent Jonathan Overend has seen enough. Juan Martin del Potro, crowned US Open Champion on Monday, is the future of men’s tennis. At the conclusion of the final he uttered the following:
0129: “This man Juan Martin del Potro will be the next world number one, it’s a certainty,” says 5 live’s Jonathan Overend.
Certainty? Alright.
There’s nothing wrong with touting him as one of the most significant players on the men’s tour presently - he’s ranked 5 in the world, and has just won his first Grand Slam, beating Federer and Nadal in the process. He’s also only 20 years old, so it’s hardly a leap of faith to suggest that the Argentine can still make improvements and has his best years ahead of him.
But a certainty to be the next number one? We racked our brains really hard and thought about whether there were any possible scenarios in which that wouldn’t be true. And we realised that there were just one or two:
1) Rafa Nadal, anyone? He was number one in the world until the summer, after all, until he was floored by some nasty injuries to the knees which rendered him incapable of contesting Wimbledon (which he won last time he tried), and a stomach problem which made it fairly remarkable that he got as far as the semi-finals at the US Open. He’s got a largely free tilt at ranking points from the French Open onwards next year.And he’s still only 23.
2) Andy Murray? His defeat at the hands of Cilic in the 4th round of the US Open took the gloss off an excellent season and cost him a good number of ranking points, but he’s beating the world’s best on a regular basis and is only (a big only, admittedly) as far away from the top as making the transition to beating the best in a Grand Slam. When he became number 2 in the world earlier this year, the talk didn’t seem so fanciful to Jonathan Overend a month ago today:
Can he get to number one? Absolutely he can.
3) Novak Djokovic - This year has been a disappointment by his standards, but he’s on the up, having taken Federer considerably closer than the straight sets US Open semi-final defeat suggests, and having reached the semi-finals or better of every major tournament in the past, he has plenty of places to gain ranking points in 2010, and at 22, he’s a match for any player on any surface.
4) The dip in form - Del Potro doesn’t have to kick on from here. Djokovic’s 2008 Australian Open title has not been followed up yet with another Grand Slam final. The men’s game may never have been more competitive than it currently is, and the slightest weakness will be seized upon.
5) How long before number one? - Federer, who played all four Grand Slam finals this year and won two, hardly looks like he’s about to go away. And the longer that Del Potro has to maintain his form, the longer there is for things to go wrong. Not that the landscape cannot change very quickly - there were people who suspected that Federer might never be able to overhaul Sampras’ record earlier in the year after his defeat to Nadal in Australia. Not so much the case now… Six months ago, the outlook was very different - Nadal on the up, Murray on the up, Federer struggling. If that isn’t a sign of how quickly things can change, then what is?
— — — —
Del Potro, for what it’s worth, is a likely world number one in the future, and evidently has the game and temperament to win big tournaments. But there’s no reason to assume he’s the next in line to the position. Unsubstantiable and evidently uncertain hyperbole has no place in assessments of the significance of a tennis match, nor in the output of a journalist.
