Why David Moyes won’t leave Everton for Aston Villa

[...] The Goodison manager is unlikely to turn his back on the Blues, even if Villa Park has its attractions. Why? Because, even after a poor start to the new campaign, Everton are on the verge of big things.

It has taken the best part of a decade for Moyes to build a side that is capable of sustaining a challenge for the top four, and competing with the elite in the Premier League.

[...] He feels he owes it to this fine squad of players he has built up, to see the job through, and give it a shot at seeing where they can end up.He also feels that Villa are not a bigger club than Everton, and don’t have a better squad either. If he leaves Merseyside, then it would only be for a side with a massive financial advantage over his current club.

Villa don’t have that. Lerner would love Moyes, but precisely because he can operate on a limited budget. If the Scots boss is to move on, then it would only be for a massively increased transfer budget.

In the mean time, he will try to take Everton to the places he is convinced they can go. And if he can do that in the next couple of seasons, then he would he a real contender to replace Sir Alex Ferguson, if and when he chooses to step down from the Old Trafford hot seat.

It’s hardly groundbreaking stuff - most football fans would acknowledge that the only thing that could tempt Moyes from Everton would be an obviously bigger club - essentially one already involved in the Champions League - or an obviously bigger transfer budget. It is common sense, and as a rare commodity at the Mirror’s sports desk, we’re grateful for it.

We’re also disappointed. Disappointed that is, that Maddock either wasn’t around or wasn’t forthcoming when Alan Dixon decided to splash this ‘Exclusive’ across their front page the previous day:

Moyes linked with Villa job - Exclusive

Everton have no money to give Moyes for the striker he wants and even selling players would not guarantee he would be given the funds to improve them the way he wants.

There were a flood of bets on Moyes to get the job yesterday, but the key to the move will be whether there is real money at Villa for him to spend.

So an exclusive based on betting odds shortening and people at Villa wanting him? No surprise there given his track record at Everton. But how good is the scoop really? Does them being interested really have any relevance, something suggested by vague “reports that he is growing tired of working on a shoestring at Goodison Park”?

As Dixon later suggests, there are caveats as to whether the exclusive will actually come to reflect reality:

So, is there real money at Villa for him to spend? David Maddock is pretty adamant that Moyes would only leave “for a side with a massive financial advantage over his current club” and that “Villa don’t have that”, an argument based on evidence that has been there for all to see over the last few years rather than a revelation from the day between Dixon’s exclusive and Maddock’s column.

Dixon even concedes this point himself based on evidence, such as O’Neill’s resignation:

Owner Randy Lerner eventually parted with O’Neill over cutbacks in spending and Moyes is unlikely to jump from the frying pan to the fire by going there if funds are low.

Good point. Probably shouldn’t make a big song and dance over an exclusive linking Moyes to Villa when all the logic flies against it, so much so that your colleague is busy beavering away over a whole column dedicated to why it won’t happen.

Still, at least that wasn’t their only big exclusive on transfer deadline day. Darren Lewis, take a bow:

Spurs plotting shock Adebayor swoop - Exclusive

Mirror Sport understands talks have taken place at the highest level with Spurs chairman Daniel Levy prepared to sanction a loan deal and payment of nearly half the 26-year-old’s £170,000-a-week salary.

[...]

Redknapp has been linked with moves for Sevilla striker Luis Fabiano, Villareal forward Giuseppi Rossi and AC Milan hitman Klaas Jan Huntelaar.

Spurs boss Redknapp has already shown, with his signing of defender William Gallas, that he has no problem bringing in players across the north London divide.

But he is a massive fan of Adebayor and Spurs have been pushing City hard for a deal.”

Another column could have been dedicated to reasons why that deal wouldn’t come off, not least the frequently cited claim that City wouldn’t let Bellamy to go Spurs as they were rivals for the Champions League places.  Maybe that nagging concern prompted them to stab similarly in the dark at Luis Fabiano, Giuseppi Rossi and Klaas Jan Huntelaar. Still, Rafael Van der Vaart - kind of the same.

Lastly, today we got proof that the Mirror believe in the age-old maxim of “if at first you don’t succeed…” with this cracking exclusive:

Curbs moves to front of Villa job queue - Exclusive

Alan Curbishley’s hopes of landing the Aston Villa job have been boosted after talks with the club.

Villa owner Randy Lerner returns to Birmingham today to weigh up his options on who should replace Martin O’Neill.

But just in case…

Curbishley’s fellow out-of-work bosses Gianfranco Zola, Gerard Houllier, Sven Goran Eriksson and Gareth Southgate are also very keen.

Guys without jobs interested in good job? Who knew?

Too many questions, not enough answers...

While it seemed like it might actually be quite refreshing to read an article on the new ownership of West Ham that wasn’t full of trite cliches about how Sullivan and Gold are proper football men who really understand the club’s needs and aren’t like all those nasty foreign owners, when we looked at Darren Lewis’ scare-mongering article it turned out that it wasn’t.

The trouble was that in amongst his reckoning were several rather flimsy assertions and a couple of rhetorical questions which, once answered, rather undermine the arguments. Over to you, Darren:

Why the alarm bells should be ringing at West Ham

The alarm bells are ringing.

When David Gold and David Sullivan took over at West Ham last week, my initial thought was that they would be excellent custodians. [...]

Indeed, when they spoke about their passion for the club on sealing the deal (Sullivan wept, Gwyneth Paltrow-stylee, on national radio as he told of his joy) they won West Ham hearts everywhere.

They went on to tell of the financial wreckage they were picking through with Eggert Magnusson et al throwing money around as if it were confetti.

This would not happen under the new regime, we were promised.

Only for Gold and Sullivan first to tell the world they had offered a a staggering £100,000-a-week to try and secure Ruud Van Nistelrooy. They failed, with the Dutchman opting instead for Hamburg.

But out came the Chuckle Brothers’ chequebook again, this time to offer Eidur Gudjohnsen £60,000-a-week to quit Monaco for Upton Park. Spurs beat them to the punch.

Now, get this, they have handed a two and a half year contract to 32-year-old Benni McCarthy - who has scored just one goal in the League this season.

It’s only silly money if they cannot pay it as part of a much wider financial status. McCarthy isn’t young, and perhaps he’s being overpaid, but if you listen to what the owners are saying, there’s scope to do it. Here’s what was said on January 21st, which, coincidentally, was a time when Darren Lewis still believed that the pair would be ‘excellent custodians’ for the club.

“We can carry one exceptional player, who would make a difference on that wage, but generally we have to bring the wages down and in the summer we would hope to sign younger players on a fraction of those wages.

“We have looked at a few players in the Championship but the reality is that it is no good if they make the grade in 12 months time, we need them to make the grade now.

“We have a crisis and you have to have a different strategy to what our long-term strategy will be.”

So, fairly simple stuff, really - they need a striker, feel they can justify the cost of getting some experienced in immediately, and though it’s not consistent with future plans, relegation is unthinkable, so they have to secure the short term. McCarthy may only have that one goal, but he’s also got experience across Europe and the Premiership, and has the carrot of World Cup 2010 in his homeland. There have been worse deals, especially when others that you have tried, for instance Van Nistelrooy and Gudjohnsen, have not materialised.

They spent long enough planning and executing their strategy in buying the club. Why didn’t they spend as much time on injecting some imagination into their transfer policy? Where is the rabbit-out-of-the-hat signing?

We think trying to sign Ruud van Nistelrooy (incidentally, never officially confirmed by anyone, only the fruit of the media adding two and two together, and coming up with some mysterious number that may be four and may equally be five) would constitute being quite imaginative. And even if we’re sceptical here about the deal being offered in the first place it’s no matter - Darren Lewis evidently believes they tried to make it happen. Besides which, have you got a better idea?

But why not nick Aruna Dindane from Portsmouth, take him on loan until the end of the season and then give him back? Saving the club a wedge of cash in he process.

Well, because it’s impossible. Dindane was signed by Portsmouth on loan - for the time being he still belongs to Lens, if you believe the Portsmouth website. Any better ideas?

A loan move for Landon Donovan before Everton nipped in would have been inspired. Particularly given the way he has exploded onto the Premier League stage.

Again, insane. Sullivan and Gold completed their takeover of West Ham on January 19th. Landon Donovan agreed a loan deal with Everton on December 22nd. It’s a deal that they were only a time machine away from clinching.

So some excellent reasoning from one of our favourite Mirror columnists. We’ll try to leave the final words with Darren, as he tries to get to grips with the concept of a player transferring clubs permanently therefore commanding a transfer fee, while a player going on loan not necessarily doing so:

But I just go back to McCarthy. How is he worth £2.25million when Eidur Gudjohnsen, 32 in September, moves to Spurs on loan? (ie, for nothing).

I'm telling you this exclusively - Photo Wederburg CCA

Sounds like fairly big news, doesn’t it? It’s one of the Mirror’s biggest stories today, and comes in the form of an exclusive. Excited? Thought so. Let’s read on:

Cesc Fabregas will quit Arsenal, says Emmanuel Adebayor

Oh dear. That’s a bad start, and we’re only in the headline. If you’re going to make a big claim, you’d usually want someone who knows what they’re talking about. We can put this on a sort of scale, if you like, with five stars being the most likely to be true and one star being the least:

***** - Cesc Fabregas will quit Arsenal, says Cesc Fabregas/Arsene Wenger

**** - Cesc Fabregas will quit Arsenal, says loyal Arsenal teammate

***- Cesc Fabregas will quit Arsenal, says Cesc Fabregas’ agent

** - Cesc Fabregas will quit Arsenal, says Manchester City striker and former teammate with a massive axe to grind

* - Cesc Fabregas will quit Arsenal, says one bloke to another in a pub

This is the start point to our piece - the words themselves may be exclusive, but in their role as words to be held up to scrutiny and relayed to an audience as fact, they’re only marginally more relevant than idle speculation in a pub.

Still, we can look at the quotes themselves in a little more detail:

He said: “I think players like Fabregas will look to leave if they are not in the Champions League, but my focus is all on City now.

Wait! Is that everything he said about Fabregas? It appears that it really is. So many things to point out here, in just one solitary sentence.

“I think” - which suggests he doesn’t know. And that is hardly a surprise given that he has taken such steps to distance himself from his time at Arsenal. How we get from ‘I think’ to ‘will quit‘ is an interesting leap.

“players like Fabregas” - so not Fabregas in particular, suggesting there’s no tidbit Adebayor knows which he’s handily passing on to us about Fabregas’ plans, just that this affects players of his calibre/standing within the club.

“if they are not in the Champions League” - massive caveat alert! So not only is this a mere guess from a former player, but it’s also contingent on Arsenal not qualifying for the Champions League. Incidentally, as it stands today they are 3rd in the table with a game in hand. Just sayin’.

“but my focus is all on City now” - or, in other words, “I’d be much better at telling you how things are in Manchester than in North London.”

It doesn’t take a huge leap of imagination to suppose that the failure to qualify for the Champions League would make departures from Arsenal quite likely. We could assume that without expert assistance. But given Arsenal’s record of qualifying for the Champions League under Wenger (they’ve always qualified) it’s hardly something to trumpet as a huge exclusive.

And on the subject of exclusives, just where do these exclusive Adebayor quotes come from? A great personal interview with the Mirror? The clue lies in another piece in the paper today, and an interesting line at the bottom:

‘For the full interview with Emmanuel Adebayor see this month’s issue of loaded, on sale now’

Exclusively taken from a magazine. Which you can buy. Already. Thanks for that.

The Mirror - Photo Daveybot CCAL

It’s an interesting move by the Mirror to commission a piece with 10 prospective deals which will be borne out (or not) within 24 hours. You see, the thing is that once it is done there will be no place to hide. How relevant or accurate it is will be shown up almost immediately. So how did they do? Let’s take a closer look at:

Ten transfer deals we expect to happen on Deadline Day

DAVID JAMES (Portsmouth to Spurs): The England keeper is worried about his World Cup chances in a struggling Pompey side. Spurs’ regular No.1, Heurelho Gomes, is out injured and Carlo Cudicini is not as good as he used to be.

0/1 - No deal. Maybe five years as the Chelsea reserve is no way to keep one’s skills honed, but James didn’t join. The deal might well have continued the proud tradition Harry has of signing people he knows from before, but at 39, that would have been a seriously short term deal.

MICHAEL TURNER (Hull to Sunderland): Sunderland boss Steve Bruce is a huge admirer of the big centre-half. Hull boss Phil Brown is already on the look-out for a replacement.

1/2 - Although it really should be said that the deal was announced formally just two hours after the deal was written, suggesting that it was all but done as it was.

AMR ZAKI (Zamalek to Portsmouth): Scores goals but also tests a manager’s patience which is why he hasn’t had clubs beating down his door this summer. Pompey, however, need all the players they can get - baggage or no baggage.

1/3 - He stays at Zamalek. And when they say scores goals, they must mean last year.

MARTIN PETROV (Manchester City to Spurs): He will not play in City’s Premier League team this season (nor even the Carling Cup as Mark Hughes is fielding his top men there, too). Spurs are even more desperate for a left winger now that Luka Modric, who was filling in there, is out for two months with a broken leg.

1/4 - No deal, despite the rumours.

DANIEL COUSIN (Hull to Burnley): Cousin blanked boss Phil Brown when he was subbed during the first half of the 5-1 defeat to Spurs a couple of weeks ago. That looks to have sealed his exit with his agent seeking another club for him. Burnley are interested.

1/5 - When will football journalists learn that one misplaced look absolutely does not necessitate a transfer deal? Cousin stays at Hull.

MANUEL DA COSTA (Fiorentina to West Ham): The highly-rated central defender is wanted at Upton Park in exchange for striker Savio, who has failed to adapt to the Premier League.

2/6 - True, and confirmed just an hour or so after this article appeared. Incidentally, the ‘highly-rated central defender’ has only played 2 games in Serie A at the age of 23.

BOLO ZENDEN (Free agent to Portsmouth): Portsmouth are in for the veteran left-winger who is interested in a move back to the Premier League. Bolton could hijack the deal though.

2/7 - No deal. Despite not having the baggage of a fee to agree with another club, Zenden remains the free-est of free agents.

JAMES COLLINS (West Ham to Aston Villa): Villa are interested in the West Ham defender who knows that he is pretty much surplus to requirements at Upton Park.

3/8 - True!

BLAISE MATUIDI (St Etienne to Arsenal): As long as St Etienne drop their £8million asking price, the defensive midfielder - seen as the new Patrick Vieira - could arrive at the Emirates. He may even joined by Vieira himself, as both players remain on Arsenal’s radar. Wenger should be sponsored by lastminute.com as he famously pinched both William Gallas and Lassana Diarra from Chelsea with minutes to spare on previous Deadline Days.

3/9 - No deal was done, despite some very persistent rumours. The cheeky bid for Vieira should really push the Mirror down to 3/10 at this point, but hey, we’re being generous and we’ll let it slide. We won’t let the joke slide, though - it’s terrible. Also, Andrey Arshavin - much much better example of Wenger’s propensity to deal late in the window, especially given the Gallas deal was part of the Ashley Cole chaos move. And nobody else has ever moved late in the transfer window? Berbatov? Robinho? You know what… never mind.

FRANK RIBERY (Bayern Munich to Real Madrid): Real Madrid are expected to make one last-ditch bid of around £54million, with possibly Dutch midfielder Rafael van der Vaart thrown into the bargain.

3/10 - OK, they’d run out of ideas. This is so unnervingly speculative - maybe £54m, maybe that with a £20m player thrown on top - who knows? Maybe it will happen. Could be fun.

Obviously, Ribery went nowhere.

 —  —  —  — 

So, 3/10 then. On deals they expected. That’s really quite poor, then. Imagine how far they dip from their 30% accuracy levels when they’re being speculative rather than expecting a deal to go through…

Incidentally, the following site, www.footballtransferleague.co.uk, is a very interesting place to check out rumours. And on the subject of the Mirror, they report that as of today, they’ve been right about 732 of their last 3649 transfer rumours - or 20% of the time.

Let us be clear about this - that means that they are incorrect 80% of the time. 80% of what they rumour is incorrect. Amazing.

Chamakh - Photo Mustapha Ennaimi CCA

It’s been a little while since the name Marouane Chamakh entered the tabloid consciousness, and having been linked with a host of Premiership clubs, the focus has of late turned particularly to West Ham and Arsenal. So what’s going to happen? Let’s consider the Mirror today:

Gianfranco Zola has flown out to Italy to complete a deal for Livorno striker Alessandro Diamanti.

The only stumbling block remains West Ham’s ability to offload defender James Collins to fund the deal with Stoke and Aston Villa still front runners.

There you go. Thanks, Darren Lewis. Thank you for your knowledge.

Still, it’s nice to get another opinion every once in a while, so let’s scout around. Oh, here’s one:

Arsenal will also have money to spend if they progress to the Champions League Group stages from tomorrow night?s qualifier with Celtic.

That could see them go back for Bordeaux striker Marouane Chamakh who has already snubbed West Ham in the hope Arsenal are still interested, otherwise he will stay put.

Interesting - that makes it sound just a little bit as if the deal is not happening for West Ham. You’ll be delighted to know that this story appears in today’s Mirror. Thanks, John Cross. Thank you for your knowledge.

Embarrassing.